Sample strategy · the real thing

What your race-day plan looks like

This is a complete, genuinely-computed strategy for the Berlin Marathon— nothing mocked up. It's built for a sample runner; your own plan is computed from your fitness and the live race-day forecast.

Sample runner: 10 K 42:00 (VDOT 50)· marathon PR 3:25:00· 70 kg · experienced· Berlin Marathon, typical 17 °C

Race-day plan

Berlin Marathon

Predicted finish

3:13:53

Likely range

3:09:25–3:18:20

85% confidence17 °C, 70%42.2 km · +15 m

Even pace

4:36 /km

Difficulty

4.7 Moderate

Fuel

80 g/h

Goal check (3:05:00): Your goal is faster than predicted — achievable but it will hurt; execute the plan precisely. The limiter: current fitness (your VDOT) is the main constraint.

Your race · personal crux

The wall is at km 31.2 for you

Endurance is your limiter on a flat course, so the danger is glycogen, not terrain: from about km 31.2 the tank runs low. Hold goal pace — don't bank time early — and take your carbs on schedule before the wall, not at it. The runners who hold this stretch fueled ahead of it.

Your runner type

Speed-biased — you fade over distance

Short VDOT

Long VDOT

Fade risk

moderate

Your shorter-distance fitness (VDOT 49) is well above your longer-distance fitness (VDOT 46). That gap is the classic fade signature: plenty of speed, but it leaks over the distance. Start deliberately conservative and let the back half come to you — a negative split is your friend.

Course & elevation

54 m41 m28 m

climbflatdescent

54 m

28 m

Brandenburg Gate finish

0 km10 km20 km30 km40 km

Fly the course

0.0 km38 m0.0%

Loading map…

How the course actually runs

Flat / rolling
km 0–42 · 42 km
Flat-to-rolling for 42 km at 4:37/km. Lock into goal rhythm and spend as little mental energy as possible.

Pacing

5 km checkpoints

Every km is in the real plan — here are the checkpoints, your crux highlighted.

km 5

4:34

23:03

km 10

4:36

46:12

km 15

4:37

1:09:11

km 20

4:36

1:32:22

km 25

4:40

1:55:31

km 30

4:34

2:18:40

km 35

4:41

2:41:40

km 40

4:30

3:04:37

km 42

4:35

3:13:53

Fuelling & hydration

Carbs / hour

80 g

Total carbs

259 g

Fluid / hour

640 ml

Sodium / hour

500 mg

Train your gut first. 80 g/h is a lot to absorb — practise this exact fuelling in your long runs, never try anything new on race day.

At minute	Take	Carbs	Fluid
18	gel	26 g	207 ml
35	gel	26 g	207 ml
53	gel	26 g	207 ml
71	gel	26 g	207 ml
88	gel	26 g	207 ml
106	gel	26 g	207 ml
123	gel	26 g	207 ml
141	gel	26 g	206 ml

Fuel on the course

km 3.9Take your gel around km 3.9, just before the aid station at km 5 (1100 m ahead) — wash it down there.
km 7.6Take your gel around km 7.6 — carry it; no aid station is close, so plan your own fluid.
km 11.5Grab fluid at the km 10 aid station, then take your gel around km 11.5 once you're drinking.
km 15.4Grab fluid at the km 15 aid station, then take your gel around km 15.4 once you're drinking.
km 19.1Take your gel around km 19.1, just before the aid station at km 20 (900 m ahead) — wash it down there.
km 22.9Take your gel around km 22.9 — carry it; no aid station is close, so plan your own fluid.

What to wear

Warm

· Singlet
· Cap or visor
· Start hydration plan early

Carb-load

For a race over ~90 min, top up glycogen: 560–700 g of carbohydrate per day (8–10 g/kg) for the ~48 h before the start, easing training right down. It is normal to gain 1–2 kg of water weight.

Cutoff

Comfortable — 3:31:07 inside the 6:45:00 cutoff.

Get this for your race

Your plan is built from your real fitness and the live race-day forecast — not a sample. The first one is free.

Build my plan — free →See pricing

Deterministic estimates from sports-science models (Daniels VDOT, Riegel, grade-adjusted pace, ISSN nutrition guidance) — not coaching or medical advice, and not a guaranteed finish time. Practise pacing and fuelling in training; never try anything new on race day.