Sub-3 marathon pacing
TCS New York City Marathon sub-3 pacing plan
A 2:59:59 at TCS New York City Marathon is not just 4:16/km on a spreadsheet. The course profile, altitude, and typical race climate change how those kilometres should feel.
- Target
- 2:59:59
- Avg pace
- 4:16/km
- Course VDOT
- 53.8
- Typical climate
- 9 °C
Deterministic splits
Sub-3 checkpoints
Adjusted for 9 °C / 67% humidity.
km 5
22:00
4:20/km
km 10
43:35
4:28/km
km 15
1:05:12
4:11/km
km 20
1:26:33
4:15/km
km 25
1:47:45
4:09/km
km 30
2:09:19
4:18/km
km 35
2:30:20
4:20/km
km 40
2:51:32
4:06/km
km 42
3:00:00
4:25/km
Sub-3 risk notes
- The opening 5 km should feel deliberately contained; banking time early usually turns into a larger loss after 30 km.
- Required VDOT is course-adjusted. A flat-sea-level sub-3 marker is not always enough on warmer, hillier, or higher-altitude courses.
- Fueling is part of the pacing plan. The deterministic target sits in the higher carbohydrate window and needs practice before race day.
Step 1 · Free preview
See the course-adjusted plan first
Enter one recent result. The preview returns course cost, first splits, and fuel target from the deterministic engine and the current course data model.
VDOT
49.1
Estimate
3:14:24
Course cost
+0:39
Fuel target
60 g/h
60 g/h needs a trained gut — practise it in training, never try new fuelling on race day. Your full plan tunes this to your experience.
First 5 km preview
full race locked
- km 14:28
- km 24:42
- km 35:00
- km 44:55
- km 54:40
First race free · then €7 Race Pass · no monthly subscription
Uses an approximate course model; verify final logistics against the official race packet.
Not chasing sub-3? Go back to the main TCS New York City Marathon pacing guide.