Sub-3 marathon pacing
Tokyo Marathon sub-3 pacing plan
A 2:59:59 at Tokyo Marathon is not just 4:16/km on a spreadsheet. The course profile, altitude, and typical race climate change how those kilometres should feel.
- Target
- 2:59:59
- Avg pace
- 4:16/km
- Course VDOT
- 53.5
- Typical climate
- 9 °C
Deterministic splits
Sub-3 checkpoints
Adjusted for 9 °C / 55% humidity.
km 5
21:48
4:25/km
km 10
43:26
4:19/km
km 15
1:04:59
4:20/km
km 20
1:26:19
4:15/km
km 25
1:47:35
4:13/km
km 30
2:08:47
4:15/km
km 35
2:29:52
4:12/km
km 40
2:50:48
4:10/km
km 42.2
3:00:00
4:23/km
Sub-3 risk notes
- The opening 5 km should feel deliberately contained; banking time early usually turns into a larger loss after 30 km.
- Required VDOT is course-adjusted. A flat-sea-level sub-3 marker is not always enough on warmer, hillier, or higher-altitude courses.
- Fueling is part of the pacing plan. The deterministic target sits in the higher carbohydrate window and needs practice before race day.
Step 1 · Free preview
See the course-adjusted plan first
Enter one recent result. The preview returns course cost, first splits, and fuel target from the deterministic engine and the current course data model.
VDOT
49.1
Estimate
3:13:39
Course cost
-0:06
Fuel target
90 g/h
First 5 km preview
full race locked
- km 14:40
- km 24:40
- km 34:39
- km 44:43
- km 54:45
First race free · then €7 Race Pass · no monthly subscription
Uses an approximate course model; verify final logistics against the official race packet.
Not chasing sub-3? Go back to the main Tokyo Marathon pacing guide.